Islamabad (Sabahuddin Qazi): Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, ten years ago on December 25, 2015, made global headlines by paying a surprise visit to Pakistan, a gesture that defied years of tension between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Landing in Lahore to wish his Pakistani counterpart, Mian Nawaz Sharif, a happy birthday and to attend a family event, Modi’s brief stopover was hailed as a historic act of diplomacy and personal statesmanship. Ten years later, South Asia stands at a crossroads once again, mired in mutual distrust, deadly skirmishes, and a stagnated peace process.
As conflict once more looms large over the subcontinent, the pressing question is: should Modi repeat his bold 2015 maneuver with another surprise visit in 2025?
2015: A Glimpse of Possibility
Modi’s 2015 visit was unprecedented. It was the first by an Indian Prime Minister to Pakistan in over a decade and came without the usual fanfare or pre-negotiated itinerary. It broke through the rigid protocol that often defines India-Pakistan interactions. At the time, there was hope that this symbolic gesture could mark the beginning of a thaw in relations that had been defined by conflict, especially after the 2008 Mumbai attacks that severely damaged trust.
International media and diplomatic observers praised the visit. Publications like The Wall Street Journal, BBC, and The New York Times commended the move for humanizing the bilateral dialogue. Pakistan’s then-Prime Minister Sharif welcomed the initiative, describing it as a step toward mutual understanding and coexistence.
Even in India, a country with diverse political opinion, the visit received cautious but widespread approval from opposition leaders and civil society advocates, many of whom saw it as evidence that diplomacy could outmaneuver entrenched hostility.
However, the optimism was short-lived. Barely weeks later, in January 2016, the Pathankot airbase attack by suspected Pakistani militants derailed the momentum. Subsequent terror attacks, including the deadly 2016 Uri attack and the 2019 Pulwama bombing, were met with military retaliation from India and diplomatic disengagement. The 2019 Balakot airstrike, in particular, brought the two nations perilously close to open conflict.
2025: A Landscape of Escalation
In 2025, relations between India and Pakistan are arguably more fragile than in 2015. A recent militant attack in Kashmir has claimed dozens of lives, reigniting a cycle of accusations and reprisals. India has accused Pakistan of supporting terrorist proxies, a charge Islamabad denies. In response, India has suspended its participation in the Indus Water Treaty, a move interpreted by Pakistan as an act of aggression. Both nations have expelled diplomats, halted cross-border trade, and shut down air corridors.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical context has also shifted. The Ukraine war, the US-China tarrif war, and the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan have created a complex matrix of regional insecurity. Within this framework, India-Pakistan relations are no longer just bilateral; they are embedded in broader strategic tensions that could spiral out of control with a strong risk of breaking out third world war.
Comparative Context: 2015 vs. 2025
What makes 2025 different from 2015, and what remains the same? In both years, there is a shared backdrop of hostility: border skirmishes, proxy violence, and diplomatic deadlock. But in 2025, the scale and frequency of violence appear more intense. The domestic political landscape in both countries is also more polarized.
In recent years, Modi’s government has adopted a more hardline approach on issues like Kashmir and cross-border terrorism, aligning with a nationalist political agenda.
Yet the case for dialogue remains stronger than ever. With both economies under strain—India from global slowdown and Pakistan from IMF debt—escalating conflict is a luxury neither can afford. More importantly, younger generations in both countries are increasingly vocal in their demand for peace, connectivity, and regional cooperation, especially in areas like climate change, trade, and public health.
Modi’s Much Needed Bold Move
A second surprise visit by Modi in 2025 could be a bold reset, much like the first one attempted to be. But this time, it must be more than a gesture—it must be linked to a clear diplomatic roadmap. There are three key reasons such a visit is not only desirable but necessary:
1. Breaking the Stalemate: Diplomacy has been stuck in a rut for years. Traditional channels—track I and II dialogues—have failed to yield breakthroughs. A surprise visit could reignite momentum and bypass entrenched bureaucratic hesitations on both sides.
2. Reclaiming Moral Leadership: India has long projected itself as a responsible regional power. Engaging Pakistan—even unilaterally—on peace could reinforce this image globally, especially at a time when the region is under international scrutiny.
3. Public Sentiment: Public appetite for peace remains strong, even amid propaganda and war rhetoric. People-to-people connections—through art, culture, and sports—have survived political storms. A visit could energize these civil society linkages and promote a narrative of reconciliation. It is pertaining to mention that Dr. Ramesh Kumar Vankwani, a prominent Pakistani Hindu parliamentarian and Patron-in-chief of Pakistan Hindu Council, has already suggested Indian PM Narendra Modi to plan a good gesture visit to Kartarpur Corridor, located in Pakistani territory near India-Pakistan border, to sign a peace accord with his Pakistani counterpart Mian Shehbaz Sharif.
Potential Risks and Mitigation
No diplomatic move is without risk. Critics will argue that another surprise visit may be perceived as weakness or invite political backlash domestically. Moreover, there is the real danger of a violent provocation—another terror attack that could derail talks yet again.
To mitigate this, the visit should be part of a multi-layered approach that includes backchannel communications, military confidence-building measures (CBMs), and economic engagement incentives. Transparency with key international stakeholders—like the U.S., China, and the Gulf states—could also reduce strategic misinterpretations.
A Leap Worth Taking
Modi’s 2015 visit to Lahore was a moment of audacity and vision. It ultimately faltered, not due to a lack of will, but because of the deep-rooted structures of mistrust and provocation that plague India-Pakistan relations. In 2025, with the stakes even higher, a similar leap—this time more prepared, more inclusive, and more strategically aligned—could be the beginning of a long-overdue thaw.
Peace in South Asia cannot be built overnight, nor can it rest on symbolic gestures alone. But leadership, especially the kind that surprises, inspires, and disrupts cycles of hatred, can lay the foundation. Ten years after that fateful historic visit, perhaps it’s right time for Modi and Sharif to make the world surprise again.
